EU scientists say this year is "virtually certain" to be the world's hottest on record, with temperatures more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial times, for the first time.
Global temperatures from January to October were 0.6% higher than the same period in 2023 - the hottest year to date.
The Copernicus team says that means the world is likely to breach a key threshold in the fight against climate change.
October 2024 was the second-warmest October globally, after October 2023, with an average ERA5 surface air temperature of 15.25°C, 0.80°C above the 1991-2020 average for October.
October was 1.65°C above the pre-industrial level and was the 15th month in a 16-month period for which the global-average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The global-average temperature for the past 12 months (November 2023 – October 2024) was 0.74°C above the 1991-2020 average, and an estimated 1.62°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
The average global temperature anomaly for the first 10 months of 2024 (January to October) is 0.71°C above the 1991-2020 average, which is the highest on record for this period and 0.16°C warmer than the same period in 2023.
It is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record. The average temperature anomaly for the rest of 2024 would have to drop to almost zero for 2024 to not be the warmest year.
Given that 2023 was 1.48°C above the pre-industrial level according to ERA5, it is likewise virtually certain that the annual temperature for 2024 from ERA5 will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level, and likely that it will be more than 1.55°C above.
Europe and other regions
The average temperature over European land for October 2024 was 10.83°C, 1.23°C above the 1991-2020 average for October, making the month the 5th warmest October on record for Europe.
October 2022 is the warmest October on record, at 1.92°C above average. European temperatures were above average over almost all of the continent.
Outside Europe, temperatures were most above average over northern Canada, and well-above average over the central and western United States, northern Tibet, Japan and Australia.
Temperatures were most notably below average over central Greenland and Iceland.
Sea surface temperature
The average sea surface temperature (SST) for October 2024 over 60°S–60°N was 20.68°C, the second-highest value on record for the month, and only 0.10°C below October 2023.
The equatorial eastern and central Pacific had below-average temperatures, indicating a move towards La Niña conditions, but SSTs across the ocean remained unusually high over many regions.
According to Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): " After 10 months of 2024 it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels according to the ERA5 dataset. This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29."
