The new figure does not take into account the “pent-up demand” for housing in previous years.
The research, funded by the Department of Housing and Local Government, focussed on 12 different scenarios for population growth in Ireland.
In the “baseline” population growth scenario, the population will increase by 1% each year. This would mean that the rate of new builds must increase to between 38,000 and 50,000 new homes each year.
Adele Bergin, Associate Research Professor at the ESRI and author of the report says “Housing demand, both now and in the future, has significant implications for housing policy in terms of the number of housing units required and the areas they are needed. Our research shows that on average, across a range of scenarios, around 44,000 new units a year are necessary to keep with population growth.”
Researchers have said that international migration is the “key driver” behind Ireland's growing population levels.
In the event of a high-migration scenario, the population would increase by 1.2% each year. The rate of new builds would have to increase to between 41,000 and 53,000 new homes each year.
In the event of a low-migration scenario, the population would only increase by 0.8% each year. The rate of new builds would have to be between 35,000 to 47,000 new homes each year.
The Government's Housing For All target is 33,000 new units built per year. This is 11,000 less than the average new build rate required according to the new ESRI report.
Taoiseach Simon Harris stated at the Fine Gael Ard Fheis in April that the government will build 50,000 houses per annum for the next five years.
Speaking to RTE on his way into the cabinet, Mr Harris said that he welcomes the new research and it is clear that the Government needs to “significantly lift” the scale of ambition for new housing measures.
According to the Taoiseach, the Government will publish a Draft National Planning Framework next week that will hopefully allow for the government to set new housing targets for autumn.
While population growth is to be expected throughout the country, researchers predict that the Eastern and Midland regions will see the highest increase, especially around Dublin.
The report also notes that 46.4% of the structural housing demand will come from Dublin and Cork.
“Projections of structural housing demand are sensitive to assumptions including international migration, household size and the obsolescence rate of the housing stock.” Paul Egan, a research officer at ESRI says.
“Owing to the uncertainty in any projection exercise, the research considers a range of assumptions. It should also be noted that all scenarios relate to future demographic housing demand and do not factor in current pent-up demand.”
